19.09.2025
The former Commander-in-Chief of the Estonian Defence Forces, General Martin Herem, says that Estonia's capability to act in the event of war is high, but the pace must continue to be maintained in acquiring ammunition and sensors, including drones, and we must constantly practice cooperation with allies. Only in this way will we be prepared for possible aggression and be able to put the brakes on it quickly. According to him, it is important to talk about war, but avoid creating fear and speak in the language of facts and solutions.
We are conducting the interview at the end of August, just after the Alaska and Washington summits, which ended without an agreement. This gave impetus to even more intensive Russian military activity in Ukraine. How are the Ukrainians doing?
There are no major positive developments at the moment, but Ukraine is defending itself fiercely, and Russia's losses are greater in terms of both military equipment and soldiers. Russia has advanced in terms of territory, but it is still far from reaching the point where Ukraine has prepared its defense well. The capabilities of Ukraine's military industry have improved, but the problem is still the shortage of manpower. Technology plays a big role, but the principle still applies in war - where your soldier's boot is not, the enemy's boot is.
What is the fighting spirit of Ukrainian soldiers?
Having spoken a lot with these soldiers or officers in recent months, I don't see any depression. Of course it's hard, but they say we have to take it one day at a time or we will fight until victory.
What can we do here in Estonia to continue to help Ukraine?
The Estonian state as a whole supports in very different ways, and I would not like to say that it should or could do more financially. Today's support must simply be continued. Every Estonian person must decide what they can do according to their own capabilities. For example, I myself am taking hundreds of fishing nets to Ukraine, which I have received from local donors and which will help protect the Kherson region against drones. It is important for us that through this support we also get feedback from them - what is needed, what works, what needs to be done differently. This is a very important value for us, so that we can be better prepared ourselves.
"It is important for Estonia that through Ukrainian support we also receive feedback - what is needed, what works or what needs to be done differently. This is a very important value for us, so that we can be better prepared ourselves."
You have been in Ukraine a lot recently for a recently completed documentary. What lessons can we learn from these moves for our defense capabilities?
Estonia has actually been preparing for a long time, but the pace has been slow. This has been held back by the perception that what is happening in Ukraine is far away and out of our reach. That is why we are considering, but acting slowly. One example of this is that a year ago we were unable to find the missing 1,6 billion euros for ammunition, now larger-scale decisions have finally been made. We cannot afford to think that NATO will protect us and that we ourselves do not have to do anything. On the contrary, we must be ready for war and be able to eliminate any aggression in cooperation with our allies within days or weeks at the latest.
Couldn't one of the reasons be the general belief that war is no longer fought on the battlefield with ammunition and soldiers, but rather in cyberspace, in the media, and at meetings?
The example of Ukraine shows that we cannot save cities with cyber activities, we cannot protect villages with information operations, and technology alone will not eliminate the aggressor. All of this is important, but we must admit that the principles of preparedness that were in force almost twenty years ago are still relevant today. This is not a new and smart war, but the skills acquired by our defense forces, for example in anti-tank warfare – dragon teeth, trench warfare – are still necessary. In this sense, we have kept the right line, and of course, drones, related training and all kinds of supporting, new technology must be added to it.
How could the war in Ukraine end?
It's hard to say. There are tens of thousands of people in the ranks of the Ukrainian military whose homes are in the occupied territories. If you ask them, they are not willing to lose their homes, or peace within today's borders, and they want to fight until victory.
What determines whether Russia will turn its aggression against Estonia, what is the first alarm bell?
Alarm bell number one is when the war in Ukraine stops or freezes. Number two is how much time Russia needs to prepare. I don't think it would need more than six months. The third is what is happening in the world at that time. For example, the war in Israel is a vivid example of how it burdens the attention, diplomacy, and economy of countries. Any conflict between countries would have the same effect. Finally, and as a very important factor, how prepared we ourselves are and our allies are. Today, our ability to form units is very good, we are in the TOP 5 in the world – after Israel, Switzerland, and Finland.
You have emphasized the importance of faster deployment of drones, but has the war forced our defense industry to make other groundbreaking innovations?
Drone capabilities are very important in the case of Ukraine. However, it must be taken into account that the role of the infantryman remains important. Figuratively speaking, Juss Põltsamaa must still have a gun in his hand in the trenches and be able to operate a drone from the terrain. Most of the drones are flown by infantrymen - they move kilometers to the position and must be able to cope with other parts of the terrain as well. Indeed, reconnaissance drones can be controlled from anywhere, but this is a small part of the war. In Estonia, the situation with the acquisition and training of drones is already improving, there is still a lack of reconnaissance drones and solutions on how to install explosives on drones as efficiently and industrially as possible.
I would like to talk about the fear of war, which is increasingly taking hold in Estonia. Should the state somehow alleviate this fear, or is this part of the preparedness plan?
In my opinion, we should talk more about the war and the Ukrainian experience, but not in terms of fear and danger, but about the solutions and steps we have taken. We are making a documentary about Ukraine with Madis Kimmel and Ivar Heinmaa also to make Estonians more aware. We want to show Ukrainian solutions and talk about what we already have or are planning.
Here I will give an example on the subject of shelters. We have no point in saying that we lack public shelters, we have never had enough of them. Instead, we could talk about shelters at home – what are the suitable rooms or how to turn them into shelters in case of danger. Ukrainians have also not dared to take shelter in basements, because they are labeled as mass graves. However, the data from the Rescue Board there shows something else – only a few traps have remained in the basement in three years. So we need to talk about facts and solutions, not remain abstract. For example, about how a functional shelter was made in the basement of a Tartu apartment building in two days – with cooking, washing and sleeping facilities.
What can we do about the growing distrust of the state in society, be it, for example, protests against the expansion of the Nursipalu training ground, the construction of wind farms, or industries?
Indeed, these people are loud, but fortunately they are few. In terms of democracy, if they did not exist, they would have to be created. Of course, personally, this creates powerlessness, but we must continue to communicate with these people, bring the true facts to the surface. We have seemingly lost several such communication battles today – the Nursipalu expansion, vaccination, the refinery, but we still need to continue to raise awareness.
We also talk about transport and Rail Baltica. How do you assess the importance of this international high-speed connection?
In many areas such as energy, foreign policy, education, etc. I do not want to speak, because I am not an expert. The same is true with Rail Baltica. Yes, personally it concerns me, because it goes through the forest and hunting grounds of my childhood, and it is clear that I am disturbed by it. But I do not protest against it. If it is needed and there are compelling arguments for its construction, then it should be done. I am of the opinion that every additional connection is good.
"Rail Baltica goes through the forest and hunting grounds of my childhood, and it's clear that I'm disturbed by it. But I'm not protesting against it."
Learning from the Ukrainian experience, isn't railway an additional security guarantee? Several countries have recently made decisions to restore old railway connections precisely from a security perspective.
Having previously served as Chief of the General Staff and Commander of the Defence Forces, I must say that in the early days, security was not an argument for the construction of Rail Baltica. It has become an issue later. A large part of Estonia's trade comes across the sea, which is also a focus for our defence capability. If we do not achieve control at sea, no other connection will replace it.
Using the example of Ukraine, we can of course say that the railway is functioning there, even despite Russia's efforts to disrupt it. However, I cannot say how great its need is for the economy or mobility as a whole; that must be decided by other experts.
One of the local stops of Rail Baltica is coming to your home area, Järvakanti, would you start using it?
If I could get from Järvakandi to Riga, I would definitely do it. Not to mention if I could take the train to Berlin or somewhere else. My friends and I laugh that when Rail Baltic is finished, we will be almost sixty and then we can go to Berlin to drink beer as pensioners.
What would be the first place you would travel to when Rail Baltica is completed? I would drive to Warsaw and change to another means of transport there to get to Kiev. This would be one of the easiest and most convenient options for me. I would also go elsewhere from Warsaw, today I have to drive an hour and a half to Tallinn Airport and from there I will only get to the desired point with several transfers.
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